Here's the regional forecast from the National Weather Service:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND KENTUCKY... * FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DECLINE IN COVERAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS FIRST EPISODE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. A SECOND MORE POTENT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE EVEN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SECOND EPISODE...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS BY THE END OF SUNDAY RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND COULD CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT FOR THE REGION. WITH THE EXTREME LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS...AND LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES IN PLACES...FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
Totals over five inches? Baglady, I think we're about to get ALL your missing spring rain. In two days.
Farther down the page, they say:
324 PM EDT THU APR 29 2010 /224 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010/...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD
[I love that phrase "active weather period"]
IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINS...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND FLOODING LIKELY...
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SETUP FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A LARGE
AMOUNT OF WARM AND MOIST AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND.
THE FIRST EPISODE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS BEING POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER THREAT
WITH THIS FIRST EPISODE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
LIKELY. WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL...BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG.
A SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THOUGH
AGAIN...THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL BEING POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SOME AREAS PERHAPS SEEING AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OR
MORE. THIS MUCH RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS...
"likely result in flooding problems"-- ya think???
So if you're going to bet on the Derby, the forecast says to pick a mudder.
(Or possibly a horse who's been doing equine water therapy...)
[edited to say I tried to fix the formatting, and it looked fine in preview, but now it looks like this again. Drat.]
Oh, dear! I was so busy yesterday, I didn't get on the computer in the afternoon, so totally missed this!
ReplyDeleteWorse yet, I completely forgot about the Derby!! We haven't missed one in years, and this one was historic, wasn't it? I heard a rumour that they are switching next year to running it at night.
(too bad about the formatting - I can only read part of your post)
I can't figure out what's wrong with the formatting. I can go back and edit it into submission and then in preview it's all scrambled again.
ReplyDeleteI heard that if the rain was too bad, they were going to postpone it and run it under lights this year. They've used the lighting system for lesser races. When I was a child the Derby was at 4 PM. It keeps getting later and later so they can sell more mint juleps, I suppose.